A recent Pentagon memo, reported by the NY Times this weekend, describes the discovery of vast mineral deposits in Afghanistan containing important metals such as lithium – a mineral critical to high-tech batteries like the ones in all our phones and cameras.  The Pentagon estimates the deposits could be worth nearly a trillion dollars, transforming the country in to one of the most important mining centers in the world.  As they put it – “the Saudia Arabia of lithium”. Wow.

This could be a perfect example of a “Black Swan” – a theory arguing that history and culture does not progress slowly over time (like we imagine) but LEAPS forward to due massively disruptive and unpredictable events.  Events like the discovery of the new world and September 11th that no one saw coming and rendered previous predictions about the future meaningless.  Nassim Nicholas Taleb first described the theory in his book, predictably named:  The Black Swan.

The essential takeaway from the book is: don’t try to predict the future.  Instead, build robustness in to your plans so that when the Black Swan happens, you will able to adjust accordingly.

You should read the book.

This brief 3-second clip from Pepsi’s “Refresh” Superbowl ad caught my attention.  What a contrast these two frames show.  We don’t have spaceships, flying cars or time machines, but the world has changed a lot in the last several decades.   A lot has been written about how mobile devices, instant communication, the internet, location-awareness etc. etc. is going to change the world.  And it will.  It already has.  This is just cool.

Watch the commercial: